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Swine flu lessons

It's been a fizzer, a furphy, the swine flu, and many of us have had a little joke about it. Someone sneezes, oink oink. All mankind was at risk, the World Health Organisation warned, and it has come to pass that all mankind was at risk of getting the sniffles. Yes, it has claimed lives, 11 in Australia, but the seasonal flu claims lives among the vulnerable every year.

In my column in The Herald today I argue that there are pressing lessons to be learnt from the swine flu pandemic, and foremost among them is that the nation's plan to protect us from a pandemic didn't work. Not even a little bit. Swine flu is throughout the nation, in even remote communities, and four in 10 people tested are found to have the virus. It is expected that this figure will climb to seven in 10. A month ago a senior Victorian virologist estimated that one in three of that state's people had picked up the swine flu virus.

Exhortations to cover our mouths when sneezing, to wash our hands, to lift our personal hygiene are, when we think about it, spitting on a fire. Avoiding people with obvious flu symptoms doesn't help much when these people were freely spreading the virus before their symptoms became obvious and, perhaps, apparent to even themselves.

Bear in mind that swine flu could have been deadly. The Spanish flu that killed tens of millions of people in 1918 and 1919 did so by causing them to drown in their haemorrhaging lungs within a day or two. No time to develop the pneumonia that is a common cause of death in lesser flu pandemics.

The bureaucracy's failure to limit the pandemic suggests to me that the most effective course for an individual in time of pandemic is to assume responsibility for ourselves. And the surest way of ensuring our safety, and that of family members, is to retreat as early as possible to isolation. I'd imagine that this would be at home, with a locked gate.

Neither government nor bureaucracy would tell us to withdraw from our work, at least not until a deadly pandemic was out of control and perhaps not even then, so if such isolation is the safest course it is to be the individual's decision.

Am I over-reacting? Does the swine flu fizzer tell us, instead, that we worry without cause?

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Date: Newest first | Oldest first
Mmmm.... I just don't reckon the gov't can get it right here. People accusing the authorities of not doing enough to prevent the spread of the swiney flu, yet when they did step in to quarantine that tourist boat - all hell broke loose and news reports were about the 'over the top' reaction to a few flu cases. Its a difficult balance - the only way to significantly reduce the spread is to, as you say, retreat to isolation. But who is going to be the one to tell businesses to close down? To stop flights? to prevent schools from opening? To shut churches (no loss), sporting events, conferences, hotels, ....... By the way, I'm currently in quarantine!! KI
Posted by King Idiot, 7/07/2009 10:35:07 AM
In quarantine for what, King Idiot?
Posted by Jeff Corbett on 7/07/2009 11:47:43 AM
Swine Flu? "Run to the moon and hide Alice we are all doomed." When this most deadly? disease was first trumpeted far and wide around the world continuously by the media, it took our minds away from the financial meltdown, the depletion of our superannuation funds, which money- people, banks and petrol companies, pharmaceutical and the like were reaping huge returns. Perhaps just a coincidence?
Posted by MizJasper, 7/07/2009 10:47:33 AM
I think its called a 'equal level of knowledge" that anything with large consequences demands of people. fizzer or not the lessons by any and all 'alerts' and the additional knowledge imparted to everybody is important -as important as relearnng "health and hygiene' that was an important part of primary scholl curriculum. So when this bug changes to be as dangerous as a 'spanish flu" everyone will know as much as there is to know about what to do. I'm hoping that when the people on the cruise liner were told go and infect the continent that the benign nature of the illness was alreadty well known by those that let them "go and infenct". But if not the lesson and behaviour of the spread from that is a real valuable bit of experience. The us banknote experiment that tracked the serial numbers of US banknotes globally was an interesting experiment on how pandemics may evolve -everyone who cared logged on to a website with their location and the serial numbers of notes in their possession. it is a matter of live and learn? or live and let die?
Posted by ka--chew , sniffle, 7/07/2009 11:39:24 AM
One day you will meet a man in battle, if you have not trained and prepared for that battle, you will lose!
Posted by Buell, 7/07/2009 11:56:54 AM
Right in, Buell - he who lives by the sword, dies by the longbow.
Posted by Scott Hillard, 7/07/2009 12:25:41 PM
Hi Jeff. You are definitely not over reacting. Aside from the deficiencies this flu has highlighted in quaranteen and containment theories, we may not have not seen the worst of this virus. Now that swine flu is establishing itself the opportunities for mutation are far greater. Should the next genetic reassortment result in a more viralent form emerging we could be in a lot of trouble. Generally as viruses become endemic in a new host their viralence decreases and we develop herd immunity. The 1918 flu (I believe?) came in waves, the first of which was comparatively mild, comparatively being the key word. Any immunity conferred may not have mattered. As swine flu works its way through populations in areas like China and SE Asia it will again have greater contact with birds and pigs, with the increased opportunity of again mixing with new genetic material. If a much nastier strain emerges, we may have a desensitised and cynical population (initially), and medical imperatives delayed by political considerations. Has containing flu ever worked? I dont know, but there should probably be a back up plan, like an insurance policy, to ensure the water keeps running. Medical services seem close to being overwhelmed on a regular Saturday night, so is there a plan for the collapse of a workable health system? Perhaps a worst case scenario kit that can be distributed if needed (otherwise give it back to the hospitals), that includes, anti virals, IV bag of fluids, instruction manual etc.. and a smiley sticker? I think when scientists speak, its from a very constrained position. With a culture embedded with the demands that statements must be backed by provable repeatable test results, they may risk ridicule for speaking their mind. Many scientists are probably playing down the danger, while stocking the basement.
Posted by Duncan, 7/07/2009 12:52:16 PM
Jeff, I've been quarantined with a suspected case of Swine Flu. I am showing all the symptoms, and have been prescribed Tamiflu (which, by the way, is more than $50). I have not had the formal 'testing' to confirm my case, and I'm on the mend now! (how boring is daytime TV??)
Posted by King Idiot, 7/07/2009 1:24:37 PM
We have to be prepared to act when these things come around. [Don Corleone: 'I spent my whole life trying not to be careless. Women and children can be careless. But not men'].
Posted by Abundance, 7/07/2009 2:40:38 PM
There is no more quarantining of people with suspected swine flu King Idiot. If you had been tested and confirmed to have had it, the Tamiflu would have been free. You've been told the wrong thing.
Posted by CH, 7/07/2009 4:37:53 PM
Virally speaking we've dodged a bullet. This particular virus is quite virulent, but fortunately not severe. If it had been like some of the recent avian flu with death rates of the order of 60% there would have been pandemonium. Fortunately those variants were not very transmissible. However, a virus loves to mutate, and to mix up it's genes with that of other strains. Fortunately we have good anti virals and despite what it may sem likegood safeguards in place to diagnose and quarantine (up to a point). It strikes me as ironic that a a lot of the people who laugh at potential epidemics like this fall about at the prospect of climate change. I know I'm certainly more concerned about the former.
Posted by Directeur Sportif, 7/07/2009 4:43:52 PM
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Jeff Corbett
Bend the online ear of the Hunter's most provocative columnist.

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