You don't believe all that nonsense about the moon sending people around the bend, creating the best time to plant anything or, heaven forbid, determining the weather. And it was sheer fluke when Ken "The Moon Man" Ring forecast in 2006 the exact dates and the extent of the catastrophe that hit Newcastle and the Lower Hunter on June 8, 9 and 10, 2007. We know those dates now as the Pasha Bulker weekend, when extreme weather swamped Newcastle, as Mr Ring said it would, and drove a tanker onto one of Newcastle's beaches. There could be no ambiguity or imprecision about his prediction - Mr Ring published it in his 2007 Predict Weather Almanac for Australia. Fluke, eh?
I've written about Mr Ring's forecasts from time to time, and in May this year I asked him and the meteorological firm Weatherzone for a prediction for the rest of the year. They both did well, and Mr Ring did the better because of his more specific descriptions. In my column in the Herald today I have a closer look at how they scored.
A few days ago I set out to buy Mr Ring's 2011 almanac for Australia (at predictweather.com) but because of a printing delay I'll have to wait until January, and so I've asked for his predictions for what is for many of us the most important weather period of the year, from December 25 to the end of January.
Here is what he sent me, first for Newcastle and the Lower Hunter then for the Mid North Coast region around Port Macquarie.
"For Christmas Day, due to unsettled weather developing, a brief shower may occur in some elevated pockets of NSW like the Blue Mountains and in hilly terrain spots in the Hunter. New Year's Eve may be mostly fine in the region, but there is, for some, the chance of a brief passing evening thunderstorm.
"As for December, likely to be a wetter than average month. There may be up to 18 days rain, with heavier falls around 11th-13th, 16th-20th and 25th-29th. Hail is not expected to be a problem this month, nor destructive winds, nor fog. Sunny days are likeliest around 1st, 3rd-4th, 6th-9th, 12th-13th, 21st-23rd, 25th, 31st.
"As for January, the first week is to be avoided due to bad weather conditions, with fine camping weather beginning after the 8th and apart from odd showers in some pockets, staying suitable for camping for most of the rest of the month. The most settled periods in January may be 8th-14th and 19th-29th.
"As for February, expect rain again in the first week with some falls heavy, followed by a dry and settled second week, then odd showers between 15th-24th.
"From the 25th of February to the 3rd of March may also be a relatively good camping period. Allow 1-2 days error in all forecasting."
Here's what he predicts for the region around Port Macquarie:
"I have some significant falls in the third week of December, during the period between 11th-20th, dry 21st-24th then light rain in the district between 25th-29th, give or take a day.
"January may be mostly dry, only about six rain days, just a few isolated showers in ranges, with chance of odd heavy falls about the 6th and/or 16th.
"The next rain date of any significance may be 5 February, followed by 17th, then 5 March.
"The last 10 days of March may be wet and stormy.
"Fine periods may be 30/12/10 - 5/01/11, 9/01/11 - 15/01/11, 21/01/11 - 29/01/11, 8/02/11 - 15/02/11,
13/03/11 - 19/03/11."
By the time I return to work after annual leave, in February, this blog will emanate a peculiar munching, crunching sound, something we've never heard at such volume. It will be the sceptics, the cynics, the doubters, the rationalists, the Scott Hillards eating their hats.
And I'll leave you with this little extra from Ken Ring, a prediction that could be spectacularly wrong and one, if we listened to a senior meteorologist a few days ago, is likely to be so this month.
"In terms of cyclonic weather this season, nothing much happens until the third week of February - there will be low-grade cyclones forming but further north, but 13th-23rd February there may be wind+storm warnings for North coastal districts of NSW, with strong winds that may cause damage. The Paroo River system may be in flood 17th-21st and this may continue down through the Murray-Darling Basin.
"Then first week in March, monsoonal troughs bring widespread rain and thunderstorms over Queensland and NSW bringing potential flooding to the northern Murray-Darling Basin.
"In the second week of March, a tropical low develops over Solomons and heads towards New Zealand, sending very wet fronts over NSW and Queensland, with widespread rain and thunderstorms, again with flooding, particularly to coastal districts of NSW, along Tablelands and into the Darling Downs/Warrego areas of Queensland."
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