Nationals candidate and popularly elected Cessnock mayor Alison Davey is widely considered to be the front runner but could be tainted by turmoil at Cessnock City Council under her watch.

Country Labor candidate Clayton Barr has run a vocal campaign and is also a solid chance in what has been a Labor seat for 20 years and which has a 12.4per cent margin.

Cessnock councillors Allan McCudden (independent), Dale Troy (independent), and James Ryan (The Greens), are expected to put up a strong fight because of their high profiles in the electorate.

As a result, preference deals will probably affect the election outcome in this seat.

Major issues are expected to be the sale of electricity assets, because of its impact on the Hydro aluminium smelter at Kurri Kurri, and privatisation after the government dumped plans to privatise Cessnock Correctional Centre following a community backlash.

Also among voters’ concerns are the Cessnock and Kurri hospitals.

The government dumped plans during this term to close Kurri’s emergency department after an outcry in the area.

Cessnock is an electorate with wineries and people employed in tourism living alongside mine workers, lots of families and its share of disadvantaged people.

Ms Davey said she had watched ‘‘with sadness’’ the lack of state funding and assistance Cessnock had received as a “safe” Labor seat, especially on roads.

‘‘The polls indicate a change to a Liberal and National Coalition, [but] nothing is certain,’’ she said.

Mr Barr said most of the candidates were Cessnock councillors who had shown they were unable to run the council properly, let alone the state.

‘‘The preference deals seem to be more to do with their relationships at a council level,’’ he said.

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