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 Liberals set for victory in Maitland says poll analyst 

Liberals set for victory in Maitland says poll analyst

10 Mar, 2010 03:00 AM
THE Liberal Party will almost certainly win Maitland at the next state election after sitting Labor MP Frank Terenzini "did not do his party any favours" by electing not to stand, according to leading election analyst Antony Green.

"They'll win Maitland," Mr Green said of the Liberals, but only if Maitland Mayor Peter Blackmore did not stand as an independent.

"The sitting member [Frank Terenzini] not running was a godsend for the Liberals," he said.

Mr Blackmore has already ruled out running, and has supported endorsed Liberal candidate Robyn Parker.

"It'd be good to see the first female Member for Maitland elected and, if there's a change of government, I think it would be great for Robyn to be the Minister for the Hunter," Mr Blackmore said.

He did not agree that Labor would lose Maitland, but said the party had to endorse a candidate quickly if it was to have any chance in a seat Mr Green identified as critical to the Liberal Party's chances of winning government in March next year.

"I think the delay is because they haven't got a candidate," Mr Blackmore said.

"If it's like Antony Green says, who wants to stand to be defeated?"

The party was tipped to announce preselections for Hunter seats after an administrative committee meeting last Friday, but a decision was not made. Preselections are not expected to be announced until later in the year.

Mr Terenzini said yesterday he would not comment on Mr Green's statements and the party and his parliamentary colleagues "fully accept and respect my decision not to renominate".

While a senior Hunter Labor figure predicted last week the party would lose not only Maitland, but Charlestown and probably Swansea, and it "didn't have a hope" in Port Stephens, Mr Green said he "can't see any other" Hunter Labor seats falling to the Liberal Party, although "half-decent independents" posed real threats against sitting Labor members.

Mr Green said Swansea whistleblower Gillian Sneddon's "presence on the ballot paper will complicate the outcome" for Mr Coombs, if Ms Sneddon had public sympathy because of her sacking after helping police convict disgraced former Swansea MP Milton Orkopoulos.

Mr Coombs agreed with Mr Green's assessment.

Former Assistant Commissioner Lee Shearer has dismissed speculation she will stand as an independent in Charlestown against sitting Labor MP Matthew Morris.

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Mis Sneddon has public sympathy she is one in a line of whistle blowers who have been dismissed by the Labor Party while in government. In some electorates their is a growing rejection of the Labor Party Brand. Many will recall the question, Nathan Rees is Gillian Sneddon proof you cant protect whistleblowers? BTW What are the plans for the seat of Gosford currently held by Marie Andrews Labor ?
Posted by Edward James, 10/03/2010 5:10:22 AM, on The Herald
I reckon that Jim Arneman will be the labor canditate if he can't defeat Bob Baldwin (sitting Liberal) in the Federal Election for the seat of Paterson.
Posted by stretchyone, 10/03/2010 7:42:05 AM, on The Herald
God help us if Libs get voted in
Posted by putuporshutup, 10/03/2010 8:18:17 AM, on The Herald
The Swansea seat deserves to be lost by the ALP, and Gillian Sneddon would indeed have public sympathy if she were to stand, but it is important not to disregard how the ALP dealt with this most serious issue, with no concern whatsoever for the standards of decency and accountability demanded and deserved by the voters. This year marks four long years since Gillian was locked out of her own workplace, and the only explanation delivered so far for that act screams out for public investigation. Weeks ago we were told that the Premier was being advised to deal with this to avoid electoral carnage, but she seems in no hurry. Both Gillian and myself have written to her to ensure that she is fully briefed on all the details from the only person who knows all of the facts and has the supporting evidence. A great deal of effort appears to have gone into preventing the public from knowing the relevant facts and trying to keep the whole matter quiet -we should all conspire to deliver a strong message to the ALP and silence them in Swansea. Forget sympathy, though, as a former electorate officer Gillian is well qualified to represent the people of Swansea with experience, care and competence.
Posted by Linda Michalak, 10/03/2010 10:35:39 AM, on The Herald
I will stand for the seat of Swansea, providing my health improves. There is nothing I would like better than to represent the people in the Swansea Electorate with integrity and provide them with honest, open representation, without spin attached. I may even practise my maiden speech; can you imagine what I would say? There will be a lot of creatures heading underground to avoid there exposure!
Posted by Gillian Sneddon, 10/03/2010 11:42:52 AM, on The Herald
The 2 major parties no longer represent the average Australian on many issues.Immigration numbers-Kev's Big Australia,double the population scheme:,high rise units in the suburbs coming to a street near you-thanks to developer donations to both the Libs and Labor,and so called "border security" are just some of the issues where Australians are being ignored.Time for Independents to be elected with no party baggage to stop them thinking for themeselves.Good luck Gillian Sneddon.Lets hope you have other good Aussies taking up the challenge.
Posted by Anthony Meaney, 10/03/2010 11:58:24 AM, on The Herald
putuporshutup I dont hink it matters if it is Lib or Labour that gets in. It should be just "God Help Us" There is no interest from any party that extends beyond Sydney or their developer friends.
Posted by PJ, 10/03/2010 2:40:26 PM, on The Herald
Following on from my earlier comment - apparently the NSW Government is to formulate a response to the ICAC whistleblower report as an answer to calls to address Gillian Sneddon's case. As that committee, which was actually convened in response to demands for an inquiry but refused to consider the evidence Gillian Sneddon put to it what exactly is the government going to address? Sounds just like another delaying tactic to me... heading for the four years and counting! This is an issue of huge interest to the people of Swansea and surrounding electorates - do we not deserve our representatives to inform us of deliberations about it instead of being fobbed off yet again.
Posted by Linda Michalak, 10/03/2010 3:05:25 PM, on The Herald
Again and again you show your blatant loyalty to the Labor party putuporshutup. Unless your party can put up some decent candidates you should shut up until after the election, and you have lost your job as a Labor staffer.
Posted by Robbie, 10/03/2010 9:04:32 PM, on The Herald
Linda, Gillian, Anthony, and many hundreds of others living on the Central Coast know what went on; we have had an internet public forum on the subject which was destroyed last year. Where over twenty thousand readers scanned almost two thousand comments from Gillian Sneddon and other concerned citizens and activist, the same sort of forum activity was accommodated by the good graces of the Newcastle Herald blogs. There have been meetings at Catho and elsewhere, where disenfranchised parents have discussed political recourse at the ballot box and elsewhere which may yet be taken. Labor MP Frank Terenzini not standing for another term in the seat of Maitland will warm the hearts of a lot of people. The time is ripe for fair dinkum independents to step up at Federal and State elections come and shake the base of politics. Remind our politicians that the real power in politics the mandate comes up from the grass roots community. For almost thirty years trusting constituents have been conned into believing political power flows from the top down. Become the change you want to see in government.
Posted by Edward James, 11/03/2010 12:10:42 AM, on The Herald
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