THE Liberal Party will almost certainly win Maitland at the next state election after sitting Labor MP Frank Terenzini "did not do his party any favours" by electing not to stand, according to leading election analyst Antony Green.
"They'll win Maitland," Mr Green said of the Liberals, but only if Maitland Mayor Peter Blackmore did not stand as an independent.
"The sitting member [Frank Terenzini] not running was a godsend for the Liberals," he said.
Mr Blackmore has already ruled out running, and has supported endorsed Liberal candidate Robyn Parker.
"It'd be good to see the first female Member for Maitland elected and, if there's a change of government, I think it would be great for Robyn to be the Minister for the Hunter," Mr Blackmore said.
He did not agree that Labor would lose Maitland, but said the party had to endorse a candidate quickly if it was to have any chance in a seat Mr Green identified as critical to the Liberal Party's chances of winning government in March next year.
"I think the delay is because they haven't got a candidate," Mr Blackmore said.
"If it's like Antony Green says, who wants to stand to be defeated?"
The party was tipped to announce preselections for Hunter seats after an administrative committee meeting last Friday, but a decision was not made. Preselections are not expected to be announced until later in the year.
Mr Terenzini said yesterday he would not comment on Mr Green's statements and the party and his parliamentary colleagues "fully accept and respect my decision not to renominate".
While a senior Hunter Labor figure predicted last week the party would lose not only Maitland, but Charlestown and probably Swansea, and it "didn't have a hope" in Port Stephens, Mr Green said he "can't see any other" Hunter Labor seats falling to the Liberal Party, although "half-decent independents" posed real threats against sitting Labor members.
Mr Green said Swansea whistleblower Gillian Sneddon's "presence on the ballot paper will complicate the outcome" for Mr Coombs, if Ms Sneddon had public sympathy because of her sacking after helping police convict disgraced former Swansea MP Milton Orkopoulos.
Mr Coombs agreed with Mr Green's assessment.
Former Assistant Commissioner Lee Shearer has dismissed speculation she will stand as an independent in Charlestown against sitting Labor MP Matthew Morris.