ALMOST half of the students who start year 7 in the Hunter next year won't make it to year 12 if the region maintains the same schooling patterns.
Figures released by the NSW Education Department show Hunter and Central Coast schools continue to have some of the lowest rates of students staying on to year 12.
The region's high school retention rate in 2008 was 51.5 per cent, down from 53.4 per cent in 2004.
By comparison, Sydney had a retention rate of 83.8 per cent, down from 87.1.
The Hunter had the third-lowest retention rate in NSW with only the Riverina and Western NSW areas worse.
The Hunter's rates have almost consistently fallen across the board since 2004.
It comes after the NSW Government lifted the school leaving age from 15 to 17 earlier this year, which is expected to boost rates from next year.
Under the proposal teens have to finish year 10 then stay at school, get a job or go into training.
The Hunter Valley Research Foundation has found the long-term economic prosperity of the region depends on more people getting higher education qualifications.
NSW Education Department Hunter regional director Robyn McKerihansaid boosting retention rates in the Hunter required a change in the community's attitude towards senior schooling and tertiary study.
She said in particular parents and students in disadvantaged areas needed help to change their outlook.
"We take this issue very seriously and we have targets we would like to meet," she said.
"At the moment it's really tough, to even get a one percent improvement is a difficult task. It's really about changing those attitudes, it's about ensuring that they see access to university and access to TAFE as really an achievable goal."
Ms McKerihan said the department had a number of projects to increase retention rates.
She said the statistics did not count students who changed schools or went to senior schools and did not reflect the increasing amount of students going to TAFE or into apprenticeships.