THERE'S always a certain amount of luck associated with winning a premiership. Not so much in the playing of the game, because good teams have a habit of creating their own luck, but injuries are different. That's where luck plays a big role.
The loss of the chief playmaker, shot-caller, team general - call him what you will - can kill a team's chances stone dead. We don't have second- and third-string quarterbacks in our game.
The Broncos' plight shows just how important Darren Lockyer had become to this young, developing team. In round 21, the Broncos, with Lockyer steering the ship, out-toughed the Dragons 10-6 and on the same weekend the Roosters lit up the premiership with a 48-12 attacking exhibition at Parramatta's expense. At last it appeared two genuine contenders had joined the one-horse race.
However, the loss of Lockyer has led to the Broncos plummeting to 10th spot and the premiership has all but lost one of the teams that had enormous potential to lift in the finals. The Broncos need to beat Canberra by 15 points on Friday night to sneak into eighth spot, then hope that the Dragons don't doze off at the wheel and gift Rusty's Rabbits a last-round win to install them as their eighth-placed victims for the following week.
Frankly, I don't think Wayne Bennett will want a bad rehearsal for the semis for his men. They have had the mini slump they had to have, but are back right where he wants them for a crack at the title.
Should the bad luck that has descended on the Broncos strike other teams in the eight, which players could they least afford to lose?
South Sydney sit ninth on 26 points, but their +31 points difference gives them a faint hope. What I believe would flatten them completely as a force would be the loss of Issac Luke. He is the spearhead of their midfield attack. His forwards only have to give him the smell of a chance with some rolling momentum and he can carve up a retreating ruck defence.
The Canberra Raiders have bulldozed their way into contention behind a squad of big prime movers - David Shillington, Tom Learoyd-Lahrs, Dane Tilse and Scott Logan. Without the trailblazing, their razzle dazzle would be ineffective at best and mistake-riddled at worst. However, the loss of any one of the big four wouldn't necessarily crush their hopes.
I could pick their fullback, Josh Dugan, as the player they could ill-afford to lose because of his line-breaking qualities, the footwork, the strength and athleticism, but the player who really holds the key to their chances when the forwards roll down the field is five-eighth Terry Campese. Halfback Josh McCrone is an absolute flyer but he doesn't scheme or create like Campese can when the five-eighth is having a real dig. But that brings us to the question, how much hunger can coach Dave Furner instil in Campese? He can't finesse his way through the finals with soft, pretty plays and trick shots.
Manly are seventh and if they are genuinely serious about winning the title, they've kept their intentions well hidden so far. They've got a great advantage-line power game when they apply themselves and a lot of this is due to their hooker, Matt Ballin. He brings his big men on to the ball expertly and times his own damaging runs by being a good reader of play.
Their halves Trent Hodkinson and Kieran Foran are young and inexperienced, which is one reason why I didn't include Manly in my pre-season selection as a final-eight team. However, they were surprisingly composed and confident early in the year.
They haven't been very dominant or even prominent of late. The long haul of the season seems to have taken the bounce out of them. They play soundly but without any great impact. I'll stick with Ballin as the player Manly can least afford to lose, with an honourable mention to their captain Jamie Lyon, who is a bit far from the heart of play at centre to be considered a vital cog.
The sixth-placed Warriors' progress this year has been a welcome sight here, and a bonus for the game over there. They're a robust gang who provide ample elbow room for half Brett Seymour and five-eighth James Maloney to combine well. But my selection is their nuggety fullback Lance Hohaia.
Hohaia isn't tall and consequently isn't an expert under bombs, but transfer him to the money end and he's a champ. He's dangerous with his footwork and speed off the mark, but more importantly, he is a clever extra ball player to torment the defence. When the goal line beckons, he's the complete package.
The Roosters' climb from the cellar this year has been a reward for the regime implemented by coach Brian Smith. But if there is another ingredient that has made the rise to fifth spot possible, it is the contribution of former Raider Todd Carney. It's impossible to calculate where they'd be without him and one can only wonder how high up the table the Raiders could have finished if they'd had the benefit of his born-again career.
Fourth-placed Penrith struck gold when Petero Civoniceva arrived. He is the rock on which this side have been built. Luke Walsh, Luke Lewis and Lachlan Coote are entitled to favourable mentions, but Walsh is a defensive liability. Lady luck will have deserted the chocolate soldiers if anything happens to "old man river".
Scott Prince is certainly a prince of halfbacks. The third-placed Gold Coast desperately tried ways to improvise when he was out, but they were Band-Aid solutions. He is needed this year for a crack at the title. He has won one, so he knows what's required. His repertoire at the attacking end of the field is so extensive, if he can't find a way to get someone over for a try, there probably isn't one available.
At second place, the Tigers' tandem of Robbie Farah and Benji Marshall has to be on song and singing from the same hymn sheet if the Tigers are to have any hope. The loss of centre Chris Lawrence with a broken jaw hasn't helped their cause. They can't afford to lose either of their playmakers Farah or Marshall. The loss of either one would lead to them exiting the finals.
Who can the Dragons least afford to be without? Darius Boyd, Dean Young, Ben Hornby? Not for mine. The guy who activates almost everything dangerous that they do is their five-eighth, Jamie Soward. Whatever boxes he can't tick pale into insignificance alongside those that he can.
He doesn't play a game with a lot of injuries in it, but if he inadvertently gets hurt, the Dragons' game won't have a lot of points in it.
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