ACCORDING to our exclusive survey of the marginal seat of Paterson, Labor will win the seat by a hair and also win a second term of government.
Paterson is no easy electorate to assess. It is split between distinct rural, urban and coastal sectors, each with markedly different priorities. The seat's population age profile is also unusually old by Australian standards. And while older voters tend to favour the Coalition, the market researchers concluded that an initial narrow two-party lead in favour of incumbent Bob Baldwin would be eroded by the influence of minor party preferences, with Greens votes likely to flow strongly to the Labor Party.
According to the survey by Patterson Market Research, the single most important factor in such a result might be an apparent reluctance on the part of younger female voters to support Liberal leader Tony Abbott.
If this suggested antipathy of young females for Mr Abbott is perceived to be a factor in voters' minds, it is clear that a majority regard health issues and policies as vitally important considerations.
It has been suggested that Australia's federal election campaigns are becoming more "presidential" and less focused on local issues and personalities. The Patterson survey partially supports this theory, indicating that most voters expect party policies to have a stronger influence on their decisions than either the party leader or the local member.
That said, the survey suggests Paterson voters prefer Julia Gillard as a prime minister to Tony Abbott, by a substantial margin of 51 to 35.
The survey's prediction that Labor would win the election with a reduced majority falls in line with the latest poll published in The Sydney Morning Herald, which suggests Labor may be returned with a governing majority in the lower house of just four seats.
With seven per cent of Paterson voters undecided at the time of the survey the result is anything but certain. And the apparently high level of voter disenchantment with both major parties makes it hard to be sure that survey subjects will stick to their stated intentions when they arrive in the polling booths on Saturday.
Polls and surveys are interesting, but as many beleaguered politicians have noted in the past, the only poll that matters is the election itself.
When the figs fall
SOME people won't be happy with Newcastle City Council's decision to take the axe to the Laman Street fig trees.
But councillors, strongly advised by city staff that the trees were unsafe, were under pressure to make a decision one way or another.
Now that they have weighed in, narrowly, behind the opinion of the council officers, the councillors must ensure that whatever replaces the lost green canopy is aesthetically pleasing.
The loss of the trees is saddening, even for those who accept the safety argument. Failure to restore Laman Street to at least something of its former glory would be a civic tragedy.
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