Yesterday's predicted fireworks, expected to follow an anticipated cut in official interest rates, fizzed when the Reserve Bank declined to cut.
The government and the big four banks had been primed and ready for a fight, with Labor politicians ready to demand the banks pass the rate cut to borrowers, and the banks ready to argue that they couldn’t afford to do so.
Yesterday, as the deadline approached for the Reserve Bank decision, the Australian Bankers Association and its allies were mounting the curious argument that politicians should desist from airing their views on banks because these, if negative, might discourage foreign investors and cause national harm.
A related argument suggested that it was in the national interest for banking profit margins to be protected, since a decline in profits might spook lenders to banks and prompt them to demand higher rates for their deposits and loans.
While nobody would deny that a healthy banking sector is a good thing for any country, the ideas that governments and politicians should suppress their opinions and give special consideration to bank profits when espousing policy hardly stand scrutiny.
In fact, some might see them as unwelcome extensions of the ‘‘too big to fail’’ doctrine that implies banks must be rescued, with taxpayer funds when necessary, from their own bad business decisions because letting them go broke might ruin the nation.
Australia’s banks, having in recent years experienced unprecedented profitability, now confront two separate business challenges. Their cost of funding has increased, especially since they must refinance short-term overseas money in an uncertain climate or replace it with domestic deposits or bond issues.
At the same time, demand for loans has dropped, with many consumers trying to shed debt, rather than take more on.
Together these factors seem likely to add up to reduced profits for the banks, a prospect they – like any other business in a similar position – will hardly relish.
If a reduction in official interest rates makes available some extra liquidity, the government will want that cash in the hands of consumers to stimulate economic demand. The banks will want to keep it to preserve threatened profit margins.
That fight didn’t start in earnest today, but it probably won’t be far off.
Les Darcy’s grave
MAITLAND City Council is to be congratulated for its restoration of the grave of one of the city’s most illustrious sons, the boxing great Les Darcy.
Darcy’s rise from a plucky 15-year-old fighter to national champion was followed by an extraordinary chapter in which he went to America to avoid military conscription in World War I. He died in the USA in 1917 and his embalmed body, returned to Australia, was greeted by thousands of mourners.
The brilliant middleweight champion’s resting place had deteriorated over the years. It’s restoration is a fitting mark of respect to a great man and a great legend.