Poll shows African youth crime a key issue, and Andrews better to deal with it

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Poll shows African youth crime a key issue, and Andrews better to deal with it

By Clay Lucas

Voters in two key outer Melbourne electorates say resoundingly that crime involving African youths has spiked in the last year, and more than half identify law and order as their biggest concern.

However, a strong majority of more than 1300 residents polled in the Labor seats of Tarneit and Cranbourne believe Premier Daniel Andrews will better tackle crime than Opposition Leader Matthew Guy.

The ReachTEL phone poll was conducted for The Age on Friday – the day after a midnight rampage in Melbourne's north-west involving up to 10 African youths.

In the seat of Tarneit, held by Labor by almost 15 per cent at the last state election, more than a third of those polled said they or someone they knew had been a gang violence victim in the last year.

Acting Chief Commissioner Shane Patton speaks to the media about the perceived threat of African youth crime.

Acting Chief Commissioner Shane Patton speaks to the media about the perceived threat of African youth crime.Credit: Chris Hopkins

The poll also indicated softening support for Labor in Tarneit: it would still hold the seat if an election had been held last week, but with a greatly reduced margin.

In Cranbourne, a marginal seat held by Labor by just 2.3 per cent, more than a quarter of residents polled said gang violence had affected them or someone they knew in the last year.

A large majority of voters in both seats – which have higher rates of crimes against the person than most of the state – said that managing crime and anti-social behaviour was crucial in deciding who they would vote for.

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The issue of law and order easily outstripped other hot-button topics including transport, property prices and jobs.

In both seats, around 70 per cent of residents polled believed the main issue with youth crime concerned "gangs of African origin".

While law and order has been a long-standing problem for the Andrews government, the focus has intensified on African youths in recent weeks following a spate of high-profile offences and intense media coverage of the issue.

Incidents include an attack on a police officer at Highpoint shopping centre, an ugly brawl in St Kilda, the trashing of an Airbnb property in Werribee, and a crime spree in Melbourne's west on Thursday night.

Among Thursday's offences was the terrorising of a 59-year-old woman in the suburb of Hillside by a group of young men who stormed the house she was looking after.

In a sign of how bitterly fought November's election will be, the Coalition has seized on these and other cases to portray Mr Andrews as soft on crime, and to attack Victoria's sentencing and bail system.

Federal Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton last week also weighed in to assist his Victorian colleagues, saying, without evidence, that people in Melbourne were "scared to go out to restaurants of a night time because they are followed home by these gangs".

While many poured scorn on Mr Dutton, a majority of voters polled in Tarneit and Cranbourne said they were less likely to go out at night than 12 months ago because of the threat of gang violence.

In Tarneit, 62 per cent said they were less likely to go out at night. In the age group aged over 65, the figure was even higher: 71 per cent.

In Cranbourne, held by Labor since 2002, a touch over half of voters polled said they were more frightened to go out at night than a year ago. Older voters there were also more fearful, with 65 per cent saying they were less likely to go out at night than a year ago.

But in a blow to the state Coalition's hopes of winning this year's election by focusing on youth crime, in both electorates a majority of voters found that the courts, parents or police were most responsible for managing the issue.

Under 20 per cent of voters in both seats believed the state government shouldered responsibility for the issue.

In Cranbourne, 67 per cent of voters polled believed Mr Andrews would be the most effective in dealing with crime, while in Tarneit 75 per cent said the Premier would do a better job than Mr Guy.

Monash University politics lecturer Zareh​ Ghazarian​ said that, while Labor was unlikely to lose either seat, the level of concern among voters was striking.

"Law and order is the hot button issue," he said. "The newspapers with front page articles about gang violence and youth violence, and the nightly news with stories on gang and youth violence, it's clearly paying a part in this. But it's at the forefront of peoples' attention."

Dr Ghazarian said the "silver lining" for Labor was that, in both seats, Mr Andrews was seen as the most effective in dealing with crime and anti-social behaviour. Only a third of voters in Cranbourne felt Mr Guy would deal with the issue better, and only a quarter in Tarneit.

"With a lot of commentary about the Premier's policies and performance and crime rates, you'd have thought it would be lower than that – so that's a real positive for Labor," Dr Ghazarian said.

He said that for law and order to be "head and shoulders above health, education, transport and the economy" was unusual. "It's quite distinctive of the 2018 campaign."

"It is clearly signalling it's a great concern to the electorate – especially to older members of the community. The older people get the more they appear to be concerned."

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