Forget sky-high migration, Australia’s got bigger population problems

NSW fared better than every other jurisdiction, with its total deaths to September 2023 up “only” 6.5 per cent compared with the same period in 2019. In Victoria, they were up by 13.1 per cent, in Queensland by 15.4 per cent, in Western Australia by 16.1 per cent, and in the ACT they rose by a whopping 23.6 per cent.

Part of this is COVID-related. Our fear of the virus that first set in during 2020 has given way to an ignorance-is-bliss attitude towards its impact on Australians, but it is still killing people. We’re also seeing Baby Boomers now approaching their 80s.

These population woes, though, are not just an Australian phenomenon. Research published by The Lancet shows this century will be dominated by a collapse in fertility rates across much of the world. Canvassing 204 nations, the research found fertility rates are steadily falling, with more than half of all nations already below replacement level (2.1).

That is likely to accelerate further, with the report predicting the global fertility rate will drop to 1.83 by 2050 and sink even further to 1.59 by 2100. For our part, Australia’s fertility rate fell to an all-time low of 1.59 during 2020. While it’s nominally increased again and is currently 1.63, it is forecast to drop to 1.45 by 2050, and to 1.32 by 2100.

By the end of this century, the research predicts just six nations – half of which are in sub-Saharan Africa – will have a fertility level above the replacement rate.

All of this is happening, despite Australia being one of a handful of countries putting in place so-called “pro-natal” policies such as paid parental leave and expanded childcare to urgently try to address the problem.

But according to The Lancet’s report, it may be a case of too little too late, with the authors saying future fertility rates will continue to decline even with successful implementation of pro-natal policies.

Worryingly for all of us, but particularly in Australia, the authors note, “These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of live births among the already poorest regions of the world.”

Most economists agree that the single largest threat to the global economy this century is climate change. The second threat is the mass depopulation of China.

Due to its now-abandoned one-child policy, which was in place for almost four decades, China’s population is starting to decline dramatically. By some estimates, it could drop by as many as 500 million people over the next 50 to 60 years.

No country has ever experienced such a dramatic or rapid depopulation. The closest analogy is the Black Death that swept through Europe in the 14th century, killing between a third and a half of the continent’s population.

While those on the extremist fringe of environmentalism and those who find any excuse to demonise immigrants might be happy about the idea of depopulation, the reality is much different.

As many nations around the world are now discovering, low fertility rates and lower migration levels mean governments face hard choices about everything – from how to pay for infrastructure and deliver services to healthcare, childcare, aged care and housing.

Societies that fracture and become less willing to change and less innovative as they age slowly fade away.

Immigration is having a big social and economic impact on this country right now. But changes in our natural population growth are just as important in the discussion, and could well be far more significant to us all in the long run.

Shane Wright is a senior economics correspondent and regular columnist.

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