Short and sweet was the name of the game for Credit Suisse Research today, as they released their global economic outlook for 2015 in a flurry of 30 tweets.
Perhaps the most interesting of the 140-character posts was their forecast for Australia,
despite only receiving one retweet by midday on Wednesday.
2015 Australian Outlook: "We expect Aussie equities to rally to 6,000 on the ASX 200 by Dec 2015" #Australiapic.twitter.com/O9MCgYBs7s — CS Research (@csresearch) December 16, 2014
In the "sans tweet" edition of the outlook Credit Suisse analysts suggest slower growth and lower rates will be the main drivers in the rally to on the ASX 200.
The prospect of lower rates for Australia keeps the bank bullish "for now," with global bond yields remaining low and and building case for an RBA rate cut, the outlook report said.
Financing could likely become cheaper with Australian companies already enjoying the lowest cost of debt in a generation.
"With further rate cuts it's going to get even cheaper," said Credit Suisse research analyst Hasan Tevfik.
"This has profound implications. It means that a lot of investors and companies can use the debt market to buy equities. You can see demand for equities, either by companies buying back their own shares...or through Australian companies becoming more attractive to international acquirers."
Mr Tevfik said at least two cuts are expected in the coming year, which will be a positive for the economy in the current period of disinflation.
Australia is considered quite unique due to the large portion of equity markets owned by retail investors. There is one group of players that play the biggest role.
"The selfies," said Mr Tevfik, "those with self managed super funds."
He said the increase in the concessional cap and low cash rates mean "selfies" are trying to look for assets to provide an income.
"That's why we think equities look attractive," he said.
The outlook pointed to further commodity price weakness, a greater reduction in mining investments and a speedy increase in US interest rates as possible downside risk for Australian equities.
Credit Suisse found the expectation for Australian companies to deliver 6% EPS growth in 2015 "too bullish," and suggested, rather that investors should expect close to zero growth.
"However we forecast a moderate rise in DPS, as pay-out ratios inch higher, and a bigger rise in FCF as companies constrain capex. We expect Aussie companies should generate even more excess capital," the outlook said.
Oil: Central banks to become more dovish―lower commodity prices put downward pressure on inflation expectations pic.twitter.com/KGaU1HkLbZ — CS Research (@csresearch) December 16, 2014
2015 Outlook: "Commodity bear market to continue to underperform the cycle in 2015" pic.twitter.com/h2SutIf2ar — CS Research (@csresearch) December 16, 2014
2015 Outlook: "China is the biggest macro risk, in our view. Housing, credit and investment remains a triple bubble" pic.twitter.com/wx1mTwZZug — CS Research (@csresearch) December 16, 2014
Oil: A 20% fall in the oil price adds 0.5%-1.3% to the level of real Global GDP after 2 years #Oil#GDPpic.twitter.com/jsl4CSPqRl — CS Research (@csresearch) December 16, 2014
2015 US Outlook: "The US is expensive on both P/E and HOLT Price / Book relative" pic.twitter.com/CSwX47jipK — CS Research (@csresearch) December 16, 2014